NCAA men’s lacrosse quarterfinal betting picks: Johns Hopkins vs. Virginia

No. 3 Johns Hopkins vs. No. 6 Virginia

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Despite losing to Hopkins earlier in the season, Virginia is rightly favored in my opinion. The Cavaliers were without leading faceoff man Anthony Ghobriel last game and he could be a big enough edge to put Virginia over the top this time around. Hopkins won 58.8% of faceoffs last meeting, but I expect the draws to be be much closer to 50-50 this time around.

Virginia gets the slight edge based on how their offense has played lately and how lackluster Johns Hopkins looked against Lehigh, but I’m passing on the spread.

Instead, I’m betting this game to stay under 25.5.

I don’t expect this game to be nearly as high scoring as the last game. We could still see the Cavaliers and Blue Jays exchange blows, but at a much slower pace.

Unlike last time, it will be hard for Hopkins to win this game if it turns into a shootout again. Hopkins likely won’t have a possession advantage this time around and their best approach at combating this Virginia team is long, drawn out possessions.

Despite scoring 13 goals last weekend, the Blue Jays offense did not look great against a slightly worse defense. While Virginia has been exposed on defense more than a few times this year, I think they’ll have more success against a Hopkins offense that is streaky.

Furthermore, the last game between these teams featured two goals off the faceoff, two goals in transition and another pair of goals off broken plays. Neither goalie was exceptional either, but we’ve seen big performances from both Chayse Ierlan and even Matthew Nunes more often than not. While Nunes has been exposed a few times this season, I don’t expect Hopkins to pepper him more than the ACC offenses he’s faced this year.

Trust the seventh-ranked Hopkins and 15th-ranked Virginia defenses to buckle down in this rematch and bet this game to stay under 25.5 at -120 on DraftKings.

I’m also betting Hopkins attackman Russell Melendez to stay under 1.5 points at -105 on DraftKings. Melendez has had a quiet season this year and hasn’t factored into the Hopkins offense as much as other shooters like Matt Collison and Garrett Degnon. I expect him to have limited chances to both score or assist on Sunday based on how little he’s been involved in recent weeks.

Melendez has also stayed under this mark in five of 15 games this season—including against Virginia earlier in the year—so we’re getting a good price to fade him on Sunday.

Picks: Under 25.5 (-120), Russell Melendez Under 1.5 Points (-105)